139 Million Netbook Sales By 2013? Holy Crap

Netbooks have been riding high despite the rough economy, and for now, they aren’t set to stop. In fact, netbook sales are flying upwards, according to a report by ABI Research.

Their report on netbooks forecasted that their sales would ramp up to 35 million this year. Not only will netbook sales boom,  however – they’ll also stay up there and ride all the way to 139 million by 2013 – a tripling of sales within four years.

ABI says the connection is due to a “confluence of social and technological factors” creating a “perfect storm” for the netbook world. The estimate of the boom is also related to some similarities between netbooks and PDA’s. Kevin Burden of ABI elaborated on this connection:

“PDA’s began our reliance on instant accessible data while traveling. When PDA functionality converged with cellular voice, smartphones became the new darling of mobile professional technology that many expected to evolve into the hub for all data and communication needs for traveling professionals… Today, with a better understanding for what a smartphone is, is not, and may never be, along with a reality check on the usefulness of UMPCs, the market remains open for new device types.”

UMPCs are Ultra Mobile PCs, a smaller and newer segment of computers whose prices are cranked higher than notebooks – kind of the opposite of the netbook category, which lies below.

Of course, not everyone’s as positive as ABI. Endpoint Technologies Associates’ Roger Kay said he’d “seen some forecasts of 40 million netbook sales in 2012,” far below the ABI netbook estimate.

The question on everyone’s mind is – why?

The netbook category is often ill-defined, but their sales growth can’t be doubted. This ambiguity may be a clue to their success, as the mainstreaming of netbooks has led to more and more consumers buying them as either a main computer or sidekick to their desktop. Unlike smartphones, which are dedicated to one role, a netbook can be just about anything depending on who’s using it.

While sales are definitely going up, netbook prices could be changing in the near future – and nobody knows quite how this will affect the sector. When Microsoft releases Windows 7 in the near future, the netbook version will definitely cost more than XP or Linux.

Kay, remained hopeful. “My suspicion is Microsoft will charge a bit more, maybe $10 to $20 more, but not too much… They don’t want to lose that market.”

He’s right that keeping the price of netbooks low is the smart thing to do, but manufacturers have been fools before. For now, however, the bullish future of the netbook industry will be putting some smiles on manufacturers’ faces. Let’s see how that translates for consumers.